Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Premier League · 2026-05-13 19:00 UTC
🤖 AI Pick: OVER 10.5 corners
Confidence 6.4 / 10 Expected corners: 11.4 · Edge: +0.9
- Manchester City 24.69 attacking-third entries/90 vs Palace 13.03 — 89% differential favors possession-driven corner creation
- H2H last 5 average 10.0 corners vs model's 11.41 — slight model inflation but within variance
- Bookmaker line 10.5 shows no directional movement; sharp money neutral despite 0.91 edge
Model analysis
City's superior attacking frequency and available fullback quality support corner generation above the 10.5 line. Palace's weak form (WDLLD) and passive attacking profile (13.03 entries/90) limit their defensive set-play opportunities. H2H baseline 10.0 provides minor headwind. No sharp money shift. Signal 2 triggers moderately.
City's superior attacking frequency and available fullback quality support corner generation above the 10.5 line. Palace's weak form (WDLLD) and passive attacking profile (13.03 entries/90) limit their defensive set-play opportunities. H2H baseline 10.0 provides minor headwind. No sharp money shift. Signal 2 triggers moderately.
Market
| Bookmaker line | 10.5 |
| Over odds | 1.84 |
| Under odds | 1.9 |
Hidden signals triggered
- 2. Both elite fullbacks starting
Result
WIN Actual corners: 12 P/L: +0.8u
Strategy v1.2 · Prompt v1.0