Osasuna vs Espanyol
La Liga · 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC
🤖 AI Pick: OVER 9.3 corners
Confidence 6.2 / 10 Expected corners: 10.5 · Edge: +1.2
- H2H average of 10 corners aligns closely with model's 10.45 expected total
- Both teams balanced style with short-distribution keepers (no high-press mismatch to exploit)
- Referee averages 10 corners—no leniency signal; line unmoved despite 1.2-corner edge
Model analysis
Model identifies legitimate 1.2-corner edge at 9.25 line. Neither team structural advantage emerges: both balanced, both short-distribution keepers, neutral referee, no sharp money movement. H2H baseline (10.0) validates 10.45 projection. Edge holds but lacks hidden-signal amplification; confidence reduced slightly from base 6.51.
Model identifies legitimate 1.2-corner edge at 9.25 line. Neither team structural advantage emerges: both balanced, both short-distribution keepers, neutral referee, no sharp money movement. H2H baseline (10.0) validates 10.45 projection. Edge holds but lacks hidden-signal amplification; confidence reduced slightly from base 6.51.
Market
| Bookmaker line | 9.3 |
| Over odds | 1.83 |
| Under odds | 1.91 |
Result
LOSS Actual corners: 9 P/L: -1.0u
Strategy v1.2 · Prompt v1.0