FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Bundesliga · 2026-05-16 13:30 UTC
🤖 AI Pick: OVER 10 corners
Confidence 6.4 / 10 Expected corners: 11.4 · Edge: +1.4
- St. Pauli attacking-third entries 10.18/90 vs Wolfsburg 15.27/90 — 5.1 possession differential suggests limited corner generation from home side
- H2H last 5 matches averaged exactly 10 corners, matching bookmaker line precisely — no historical pattern supporting elevated corner volume
- St. Pauli form L5 is LDLLL (4 losses); team dysfunction typically suppresses set-piece frequency and execution
Model analysis
No hidden signals triggered. Model's 11.38 corners vs 10.0 line assumes corner volume St. Pauli cannot generate given attacking entry deficit and form collapse. Wolfsburg's superior positioning metrics do not offset home team's structural limitations. Neutral sharp money and static line indicate market confidence in 10.0 baseline.
No hidden signals triggered. Model's 11.38 corners vs 10.0 line assumes corner volume St. Pauli cannot generate given attacking entry deficit and form collapse. Wolfsburg's superior positioning metrics do not offset home team's structural limitations. Neutral sharp money and static line indicate market confidence in 10.0 baseline.
Market
| Bookmaker line | 10 |
| Over odds | 1.87 |
| Under odds | 1.93 |
Result
WIN Actual corners: 17 P/L: +0.9u
Strategy v1.2 · Prompt v1.0