FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Bundesliga · 2026-04-25 13:30 UTC
🤖 AI Pick: OVER 9.5 corners
Confidence 10.0 / 10 Expected corners: 14.9 · Edge: +5.4
- Bayern 43.6 attacking-third entries per 90 vs Mainz 14.4 — 3x differential
- H2H last 5 average 10 corners vs model expectation 14.9 — +4.9 corner variance
- Model edge 5.4 corners (57% overline) with neutral market and no sharp money movement
Model analysis
Bayern's dominant attacking metrics (43.6 entries/90) and top-4 status away from home trigger corner generation uplift. Mainz balanced style with short-distribution keeper offers limited defensive structural resistance. H2H baseline 10 provides modest support, though referee strictness standard caps additional boost. Edge remains solid without contradictions.
Bayern's dominant attacking metrics (43.6 entries/90) and top-4 status away from home trigger corner generation uplift. Mainz balanced style with short-distribution keeper offers limited defensive structural resistance. H2H baseline 10 provides modest support, though referee strictness standard caps additional boost. Edge remains solid without contradictions.
Market
| Bookmaker line | 9.5 |
| Over odds | 1.96 |
| Under odds | 1.77 |
Hidden signals triggered
- 1. Top-4 home team hosting newly-promoted side
Result
LOSS Actual corners: 6 P/L: -1.0u
Strategy v1.0 · Prompt v1.0