Larne vs Tre Fiori
UEFA Champions League · 2026-07-14 19:00 UTC
🤖 AI Pick: OVER 8.5 corners
Confidence 7.2 / 10 Expected corners: 10.9 · Edge: +2.4
- H2H average 10 corners aligns closely with model's 10.88 projection
- Away team registers 0 attacking-third entries per 90 (structural attacking limitation)
- Larne home advantage with balanced style + available wingers vs depleted away structure
Model analysis
Model prediction 10.88 vs line 8.5 shows genuine edge. Signal 1 (home top-4 vs lower opponent) supports over thesis. However, away team's complete absence of attacking-third penetration (0/90) and recent form decline (NNNNL) suggest corner generation skews toward set-piece dependency rather than open-play pressure. Referee strictness standard, no market moves detected. Edge remains valid but away weakness may suppress corner ceiling.
Model prediction 10.88 vs line 8.5 shows genuine edge. Signal 1 (home top-4 vs lower opponent) supports over thesis. However, away team's complete absence of attacking-third penetration (0/90) and recent form decline (NNNNL) suggest corner generation skews toward set-piece dependency rather than open-play pressure. Referee strictness standard, no market moves detected. Edge remains valid but away weakness may suppress corner ceiling.
Market
| Bookmaker line | 8.5 |
| Over odds | 1.8 |
| Under odds | 1.91 |
Hidden signals triggered
- 1. Top-4 home team hosting newly-promoted side
Result
LOSS Actual corners: 6 P/L: -1.0u
Strategy v1.2 · Prompt v1.0